This article written 7/28/2010, 2:18 PM by Charley Tran
An Australian journal has already dismissed the ongoing joint naval wargames [Exercise Invincible Spirit] as a show of impotence, and it s widely known that the much-touted wargames are actually a routine exercise. North Korea, in response to American condemnations and veiled threats, has declared its intention to “physically respond” to the implicit threat, which it claims to be a violation of its sovereignty.
The wargames are a response to the increased tensions after the South Korean naval corvette, the ROKS Cheonan, was sunk by an unknown force. An investigation by an international team yielded a statement that the attack was believed to originate from a North Korean torpedo, launched from a Yeono-class miniature submarine. 46 of the Cheonan’s crew are deceased or unaccounted for and additionally, one rescue diver died and others were hospitalized in the aftermath; North Korea has denied its involvement in the sinking [as of 17 April 2010].
Currently, the USS George Washington Battle Group and a number of South Korean naval elements and aircraft are involved in the exercise, which is meant to practice combined-arms naval combat, including submarine, surface, and naval air warfare. Reportedly, anti-submarine warfare doctrine is the focus of Invincible Spirit. Invincible Spirit also serves to mollify the South Korean Navy, which is small and close-knit and was hard-hit by the Cheonan incident.
North Korea has repeatedly sought to avoid the international scope the Cheonan incident has been subjected to, with the first threats coming after the international investigation’s conclusions were published, stating the belief that a North Korean minisub was responsible for the attack. Reports say that it has sought to avoid discussion of the incident at ASEAN and other regional and other venues, claiming that it sees the incident as a domestic matter between itself and South Korea.
While Invincible Spirit may be an essentially weak show of force, the new American and South Korean sanctions promise to be marginally more effective, by targeting the elite decision-makers of Pyongyang and their supply of various luxury goods. In addition, the presence of four Japanese officials for the exercise indicates a higher level of tension than has been seen in years in the East Asian sea region.
North Korea’s threats, while commonly seen as bluffs, are also an important indicator of the level of tension in the region. While China has distanced itself from Pyongyang on this matter, it is a long-time supporter of Kim Jong-il’s regime. With the unpredictability of North Korea’s actions, and the constant threat of war on the Korean peninsula, it is possible but improbable that an actual North Korean “physical response” to the provocation the wargames represent may lead to actual armed conflict, but not necessarily to war.
Armed clashes have occurred on the land border between the Koreas as well as at sea in the past, some fairly recently. However, such incidents are relatively rare and always localized, and are often patched over quickly; the ongoing wargames, in contrast, are intended to demonstrate force, commitment, and deterrence to North Korea.
